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Behavioural Investing


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Table of Contents

Preface xvii Acknowledgments xxi SECTION I: COMMON MISTAKES AND BASIC BIASES 1 1 Emotion, Neuroscience and Investing: Investors as Dopamine Addicts 3 2 Part Man, Part Monkey 17 3 Take aWalk on the Wild Side 37 4 Brain Damage, Addicts and Pigeons 47 5 What Do Secretaries? Dustbins and the Da Vinci Code have in Common? 55 6 The Limits to Learning 63 SECTION II: THE PROFESSIONALS AND THE BIASES 77 7 Behaving Badly 79 SECTION III: THE SEVEN SINS OF FUND MANAGEMENT 95 8 A Behavioural Critique 97 9 The Folly of Forecasting: Ignore all Economists, Strategists, & Analysts 105 10 What Value Analysts? 123 11 The Illusion of Knowledge or Is More Information Better Information? 133 12 WhyWaste Your Time Listening to Company Management? 143 13 Who's a Pretty Boy Then? Or Beauty Contests, Rationality and Greater Fools 161 14 ADHD, Time Horizons and Underperformance 179 15 The Story is The Thing (or The Allure of Growth) 189 16 Scepticism is Rare or (Descartes vs Spinoza) 197 17 Are Two Heads Better Than One? 209 SECTION IV: INVESTMENT PROCESS AS BEHAVIOURAL DEFENCE 217 18 The Tao of Investing 219 PART A: THE BEHAVIORAL INVESTOR 223 19 Come Out of the Closet (or, Show Me the Alpha) 225 20 Strange Brew 235 21 Contrarian or Conformist? 247 22 Painting by Numbers: An Ode to Quant 259 23 The Perfect Value Investor 271 24 A Blast from the Past 279 25 Why Not Value? The Behavioural Stumbling Blocks 293 PART B: THE EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE: VALUE IN ALL ITS FORMS 305 26 Bargain Hunter (or It Offers Me Protection) 307 Written with Rui Antunes 27 Better Value (or The Dean Was Right!) 329 Written with Rui Antunes 28 The Little Note that Beats the Market 337 Written with Sebastian Lancetti 29 Improving Returns Using Inside Information 355 30 Just a Little Patience: Part I 367 31 Just a Little Patience: Part II 375 Written with Sebastian Lancetti 32 Sectors, Value and Momentum 387 33 Sector-Relative FactorsWorks Best 395 Written with Andrew Lapthorne 34 Cheap Countries Outperform 405 PART C: RISK, BUT NOT AS WE KNOW IT 423 35 CAPM is CRAP (or, The Dead Parrot Lives!) 425 36 Risk Managers or Risk Maniacs? 437 37 Risk: Finance's Favourite Four-Letter Word 445 SECTION V: BUBBLES AND BEHAVIOUR 453 38 The Anatomy of a Bubble 455 39 De-bubbling: Alpha Generation 469 40 Running with the Devil: A Cynical Bubble 493 41 Bubble Echoes: The Empirical Evidence 507 SECTION VI: INVESTMENT MYTH BUSTERS 519 42 Belief Bias and the Zen Investing 521 43 Dividends Do Matter 529 44 Dividends, Repurchases, Earnings and the Coming Slowdown 541 45 Return of the Robber Barons 549 46 The Purgatory of Low Returns 563 47 How Important is the Cycle? 573 48 Have We Really Learnt So Little? 581 49 Some Random Musings on Alternative Assets 587 SECTION VII: CORPORATE GOVERNANCE AND ETHICS 597 50 Abu Ghraib: Lesson from Behavioural Finance and for Corporate Governance 599 51 Doing the Right Thing or the Psychology of Ethics 611 52 Unintended Consequences and Choking under Pressure: The Psychology of Incentives 631 SECTION VIII: HAPPINESS 645 53 If It Makes You Happy 647 54 Materialism and the Pursuit of Happiness 655 References 667 Index 677

About the Author

JAMES MONTIER is the global equity strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort in London. He has been the top rated strategist in the annual Extel survey for the last two years. He is also the author of Behavioural Finance, published by Wiley in 2000. James was on the 50 must read analysts list complied by the Business magazine, and was one of the Financial News' Rising Stars. James is a regular speaker at both academic and practitioner conferences, and is regarded as the leading authority on applying behavioural finance to investment. He is also a visiting fellow at the University of Durham. James is also a fellow of the Royal Society of Arts. He has been described as a maverick by the Sunday Times, an enfant terrible by the FAZ, and a prophet by the Fast Company! When not writing or reading, he can usually be found blowing bubbles at fish and swimming with sharks.


"It is quite simply the best and most comprehensive treatment of the subject to date." (Financial Times, Monday 3rd December 2007) "The Year's most exhaustive, and often entertaining, coverage of the behavioural literature." (Financial Times, Saturday 15th December 2007) "...one of the few 'must read' books on the topic of investing." (The Herald - Glasgow, Saturday 2nd February 2008) "?a fantastic insight into how markets operate? [and] one of the few "must read" on the topic of investing." (The Herald, Sat 2nd February 2008)

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