Table of Contents

INTRODUCTIONPART I. PERSPECTIVE AND PROCESS1. LEARNING IN AND ABOUT COMPLEX SYSTEMS2. SYSTEM DYNAMICS IN ACTION3. THE MODELING PROCESS4. STRUCTURE AND BEHAVIOR OF DYNAMIC SYSTEMSPART II. TOOLS FOR SYSTEMS THINKING5. CAUSAL LOOP DIAGRAMS6. STOCKS AND FLOWS7. DYNAMICS OF STOCKS AND FLOWS8. CLOSING THE LOOP: DYNAMICS OF SIMPLE STRUCTURESPART III. THE DYNAMICS OF GROWTH9. S-SHAPED GROWTH: EPIDEMICS, INNOVATION DIFFUSION, AND THE GROWTH OF NEW PRODUCTS10. PATH DEPENDENCE AND POSITIVE FEEDBACKPART IV. TOOLS FOR MODELING DYNAMIC SYSTEMS11. DELAYS12. CO-FLOWS AND AGING CHAINS13. MODELING HUMAN BEHAVIOR: BOUNDED RATIONALITY OR RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS14. FORECASTS AND FUDGE FACTORS: MODELING EXPECTATION FORMATIONPART V. INSTABILITY AND OSCILLATION15. SUPPLY CHAINS AND THE ORIGIN OF OSCILLATIONS16. MANAGING SUPPLY CHAINS IN MANUFACTURING17. THE LABOR SUPPLY CHAIN AND THE ORIGIN OF BUSINESS CYCLES18. THE INVISIBLE HAND SOMETIMES SHAKES: COMMODITY CYCLESVALIDATION AND MODEL TESTING APPENDIX A: NUMERICAL INTEGRATIONAPPENDIX B: NOISEREFERENCESINDEX