GRAHAM ALLISON is director of Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and the best-selling author of LeeKuan Yew: The Grand Master's Insights on China, the United States, and the World; Nuclear Terrorism: The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe; and Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis. Founding dean of the Harvard Kennedy School, Dr. Allison has served as Assistant Secretary of Defense and advised the secretaries of defense under every president from Reagan to Obama. He lives in Belmont, Massachusetts.
A NATIONAL BESTSELLER
A NEW YORK TIMES NOTABLE BOOK OF THE YEAR
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A FINANCIAL TIMES BEST BOOK OF THE YEAR: POLITICS
AN AMAZON BEST HISTORY BOOK OF THE YEAR
SHORTLISTED FOR THE 2018 LIONEL GELBER PRIZE "Thucydides's Trap
identifies a cardinal challenge to world order: the impact of a
rising power on a ruling power. I read the book with great
interest. I can only hope that the US-China relationship becomes
the fifth case to resolve itself peacefully, rather than the 13th
to result in war." -- HENRY KISSINGER, former United States
Secretary of State "Graham Allison is one of the keenest observers
of international affairs around. He consistently brings his deep
understanding of history's currents to today's most difficult
challenges and makes our toughest foreign policy dilemmas
accessible to experts and everyday citizens alike. That's why I
regularly sought his counsel both as a senator and as vice
president. In Destined for War, Allison lays out one of the
defining challenges of our time -- managing the critical
relationship between China and the United States." -- JOE BIDEN,
former Vice President of the United States "One of the most
insightful and thought-provoking books I have ever read on the most
important relationship in the world: the US and China. If Graham
Allison is right -- and I think he is --China and the US must heed
the lessons in this superb study in order to build a strategic
relationship that avoids a war which neither side would win." --
GENERAL (RET.) DAVID PETRAEUS, Chairman of the KKR Global
Institute, former Director of the CIA, and former Commander of US
Central Command "The Chinese superpower has arrived. Could
America's failure to grasp this reality pull the United States and
China into war? [Destined for War] argue[s] persuasively that
adjusting to this global power shift will require great skill on
both sides if conflagration is to be avoided... [Destined for War
is full of] wide-ranging, erudite cases studies that span human
history... [A] fine book." -- NEW YORK TIMES BOOK REVIEW "This
summer's must-read book in both Washington and Beijing." -- NIALL
FERGUSON, BOSTON GLOBE "Please read this book because it'll rattle
you...[Allison is] a first-class academic with the instincts of a
first-rate politician. He brings to the 'Thucydides Trap' an
impressive sweep of history and geopolitical and military
knowledge. Unlike some academics, he writes interestingly...
Allison isn't a pessimist. He argues that with skillful statecraft
and political sensitivity these two superpowers can avoid war." --
BLOOMBERG NEWS "A brief but far-reaching book in which potted
history is incisively deployed...Perhaps we can avoid war, Mr.
Allison says, by negotiating a long peace with China." -- WALL
STREET JOURNAL "Allison raises critical issues with a sense of both
drama and history. His prose should alarm serious American
thinkers... and perhaps divert us from debates over backchannels to
Russia, presidential tweets and the ghost wiretapping of Trump
Towers. And if you want some serious strategic imagination, pay
special attention to the last ten pages or so. Worth the read."
--MICHAEL HAYDEN, former Director of the CIA, in The Cipher Brief
"Can the US avoid confrontation with China? That is the
geopolitical question of our age. In most cases, Thucydides was
right: when a new power arises in the world, it results in a clash
with the dominant power. This important and fascinating book
extracts lessons for how we can avoid such a confrontation." --
WALTER ISAACSON, author of Steve Jobs and The Innovators "A hugely
respected theorist and practitioner in the field of contemporary
national security, Graham Allison is also a master of applied
history. You can bet that China's leaders will read Allison's
warnings about Thucydides's Trap. I only wish I could be as sure
about America's leaders. But every informed citizen should buy a
copy." -- NIALL FERGUSON, senior fellow, the Hoover Institution,
Stanford University, and author of The War of the World "A
provocative thesis on one of today's most pressing foreign policy
issues and a page turner of the first order, Destined for War is a
must read. Professor Allison writes with the propulsive narrative
drive appropriate for such an immediate and danger fraught topic. I
can only hope that all senior policy experts read this timely book
to prevent our country from falling into the trap Professor Allison
so ably warns us against." -- CHRISTOPHER REICH, bestselling author
of Invasion of Privacy, The Patriots' Club, and Numbered Account
"Do China and America want war? No. Might they be compelled into
conflict by severe structural stress? Yes. Thankfully, Allison
charts an essential course to avoid a catastrophic collision.
Destined for War will be studied and debated for decades." -- KEVIN
RUDD, former Prime Minister of Australia "In Destined for War,
Graham Allison has again done a great service. With an incisive
review of the wars of yesterday and a deep understanding of today's
international politics, Allison has provided American and Chinese
leaders not just with a stark warning about the consequences of
falling into the Thucydides's Trap, but also the insight to avoid
it. For policymakers, scholars, and citizens on both sides of the
Pacific Ocean, Destined for War is essential reading." -- ASH
CARTER, former U.S. Secretary of Defense "Graham Allison is the
Paul Revere of the nuclear age. He has been ringing the alarm for
years trying to stir us from our slumber. In his brilliant book,
Allison provides us with a heart stopping look into a future that
may end as abruptly as the past began." -- WILLIAM COHEN, former
U.S. Secretary of Defense "In dissecting -- and suggesting ways to
bend -- the dangerous arc of the US-China relationship, Graham
Allison has written the most important foreign policy book of our
time. This book should immediately be read by our new president.
Placing Destined for War atop every government organization's
reading list offers our generation of leaders the best hope for
avoiding stumbling into Thucydides's notorious trap." -- ADMIRAL
(RET.) SANDY WINNEFELD, former Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of
Staff "Drawing on a sweeping command of history and a keen ability
to distill the essence of an argument, Graham Allison has provided
the necessary guide for how to manage Sino-American relations into
an uncertain future. Essential, even indispensable reading for
every diplomat -- and financier or businessman -- that contemplates
China and its relations with the world." -- KURT CAMPBELL, CEO of
The Asia Group and former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for
East Asian and Pacific Affairs "Destined for War is a must-read for
anyone concerned about US-China relations, or peace. And by all who
care about the ways US foreign policy is formed -- and ought to be
formed. A gifted combination of scholarship with truly accessible
writing." -- AMITAI ETZIONI, professor of International Affairs at
The George Washington University and author of Avoiding War with
China "Reading Destined for War and drawing from its lessons could
help to save the lives of millions of people." -- KLAUS SCHWAB,
Founder and Executive Chairman of the World Economic Forum "Steeped
in history and propelled by one of the most transformative
developments in modern times -- the rise of China -- Graham Allison
has written a gripping book that decision-makers and citizens alike
must read, digest, and act upon. Allison combines a historian's
depth of knowledge with a policymaker's real world, practical
understanding. He mines the recent and distant past to offer
essential insights into the future -- in so doing, changing the way
we think about how America should act in the present." -- SAMANTHA
POWER, former U.S Ambassador to the United Nations and Pulitzer
Prize-winning author of A Problem from Hell "If any book can stop a
world war, it is this one. Graham Allison makes a clear and
compelling case that serious conflict between the United States and
China is looming, but not inevitable. This gripping book is a must
read for policy makers in both nations as well as the general
public." -- SAM NUNN, Co-Chairman of the Nuclear Threat Initiative
and former U.S. Senator (1972-1996) "Might Destined for War be the
policy book of the year? When Xi Jinping declares that the story in
Graham Allison's book is serious enough to compel our attention,
then we need to study the arguments in it. Deftly presented,
clearly structured, and with a fine concluding exploration of the
endless historical debate between great forces and contingency,
Destined for War seems itself destined for much attention, argument
and constant classroom use." -- PAUL KENNEDY, author of The Rise
and Fall of the Great Powers "Graham Allison is the quintessential
scholar-practitioner. He has served at the highest levels of
government and the academy, and is one of the principal
protagonists of 'applied history' world-wide. His latest book
brings historically-informed political science to bear on the
preeminent strategic question of our age: whether the rise of China
can unfold without major war. A work of reflection rather than
prediction, its conclusions are nevertheless deeply disturbing.
Surely another classic in the making, Destined for War is a
brilliant example of 'thinking in time', which--as the author
shows--is against us." -- BRENDAN SIMMS, author of Europe: The
Struggle for Supremacy "Graham Allison has been a source of
inspiration for me as a student and diplomat. As with Essence of
Decision, Destined for War again provides us with his penetrating
insights into global politics in the 21st century and beyond." --
BAN KI-MOON, former Secretary General of the United Nations
"Managing our strategic rivalry with a rising China will be the
number one challenge for US foreign policy in the decades ahead.
The stakes are high. Historical precedents are ominous. Some think
conflict is inevitable. Others dismiss that conclusion as
simplistic. This seminal book provides the reader both with a
fascinating excursion through history, and with the conceptual
basis for thinking intelligently about an issue that, for better or
worse, will profoundly affect the future of the United States." --
J. STAPLETON ROY, former U.S. Ambassador to China "As Destined for
War demonstrates, recognizing the Thucydidean stress between the US
and China is far from appeasement. Rather, Graham Allison shows why
it is the fundamental starting point for a successful American
strategy to deal with the rise of Chinese power that both upholds
our vital national interests and avoids war." -- ROBERT D.
BLACKWILL, Henry Kissinger Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy at
the Council on Foreign Relations and former U.S. Ambassador to
India "Graham Allison, with his usual conceptual clarity, uses the
"Thucydides's Trap" to light up the big question of our day: how
can the dominant power (the United States) avoid war with the
rising power (China)? Allison provides historical perspective,
while presenting the U.S. perspective that he knows from the inside
and the Chinese perspective that he has studied with uncommon
depth." -- EZRA VOGEL, author of Deng Xiaoping and the
Transformation of China "Read this book. You cannot get a better
introduction to the dilemmas the US faces in its China policy or to
the methods of applied history in understanding current affairs."
-- ARNE WESTAD, author of Restless Empire: China and the World
since 1750 "It isn't often that a book comes along that should be
mandatory reading for every member of Congress, Cabinet member and,
for that matter, any senior governmental official with a connection
to foreign policy and national security. But Graham Allison's
Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap?
is such a book." -- CHARLES E. COOK, JR., Editor of The Cook
Political Report "Destined for War is a 'must read' for those who
care about the long-term security and economic interests of the
United States." -- DAN SULLIVAN, U.S. Senator (R-AK) "Allison's
book is essential reading both for the content and its impact. It
is already being circulated in the White House and politburo, and
will no doubt be added to political science reading lists in
universities around the globe... Allison calls Obama's Asia pivot
'using an extra strength aspirin to treat cancer.' With this book,
we might finally be shifting to chemotherapy." -- LOWY INSTITUTE "A
pertinent study of the relationship between the United States and
China... A timely, reasoned treatise by a keen observer and
historian." -- KIRKUS (Starred Review) "As Xi Jinping prepares to
meet Donald Trump in Florida next week, his staff might do well to
get hold of an advance copy of an important new book by Graham
Allison on US-Chinese relations -- which bears the doom-laden title
Destined for War. The Chinese president is already familiar with
the work of Allison, a professor of government at Harvard. In
November 2013, I attended a meeting with President Xi in the Great
Hall of the People in Beijing, where he told a group of western
visitors: 'We must all work together to avoid Thucydides's trap.'"
-- GIDEON RACHMAN, Chief Foreign Affairs Columnist of the FINANCIAL
TIMES "The Trump White House isn't known as a hot spot for Ivy
League intellectuals. But last month, a Harvard academic slipped
into the White House complex for an unusual meeting. Graham
Allison, an avuncular foreign policy thinker who served under
Reagan and Clinton, was paying a visit to the Trump National
Security Council, where he briefed a group of staffers on one of
history's most studied conflicts -- a brutal war waged nearly 2,500
years ago, one whose lessons still resonate, even in the
administration of a president who doesn't like to read." --
POLITICO "Mr. Allison does not say that war between China and the
United States is inevitable, but he thinks it "more likely than
not." This alarming conclusion is shared by many in Washington,
where Mr. Allison's book is causing a stir... China and America
could blunder into war in several ways, argues Mr. Allison... With
Donald Trump in the White House, Mr. Allison worries that even a
trade war might turn into a shooting war." -- THE ECONOMIST "Graham
Allison has written what I think will be the definitive book on the
relationship between China and the United States." --DAVID
RUBENSTEIN, Co-Founder and Co-Executive Chairman of The Carlyle
Group "The reason Destined for War is such an important book is
that it asks: if China, with its current form of government and
economic arrangement, rises to be twice as big as the United
States, spending twice as much on everything including its
military, then what happens? Most people do not want to accept that
this scenario is possible, let alone even contemplate what
happens... If war happens, it would be an all-out catastrophe. So
we need to do everything we possibly can to avoid it." --LI LU,
Founder and Chairman of Himalaya Capital Management "Graham Allison
has articulated an idea known as the "Thucydides Trap." It states
that, through history, the rise of an emerging power very often
creates fear and anxiety among established powers, which can (in
the worst-case scenario) lead to war. Schwarzman Scholars was
designed to help defuse those tensions and create a more peaceful
world." -- STEPHEN SCHWARZMAN, CEO of Blackstone Group "My Book of
the Week from Sunday's show: Graham Allison's Destined for War. A
very smart and important book." -- FAREED ZAKARIA, host of CNN's
GPS "Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's
Trap? Read every page... Twice." -- ANTHONY SCARAMUCCI, former
White House Communications Director "Destined for War by Graham
Allison informs the moment like Guns of August did for Kennedy in
[the] Cuban Missile Crisis. Important lessons." -- LLOYD BLANKFEIN,
CEO of Goldman Sachs Destined for War "sounds a useful, even
important warning call... Stability and predictability are key
factors in averting conflict. America needs a coherent strategy,
rather than making sporadic lunges onto the world stage with either
rhetoric or cruise missiles." -- THE LONDON TIMES "Destined for War
has made the 2018 reading list of Gen. Joseph Votel, commander of
U.S. Central Command...Whether you're looking for a book or two to
read over the holidays or beginning to compile your own 2018
professional development reading list, the books on this list are a
great place to start." -- MODERN WAR INSTITUTE AT WEST POINT "The
U.S. needs a strategy to deal with a China that is increasingly
comfortable engaging aggressively in the world. A good primer on
this is Graham Allison's recent book, Destined for War: Can America
and China Escape Thucydides's Trap? Allison, a professor at
Harvard's Kennedy School of Government, tells the story of China's
truly meteoric rise over the past three decades, and makes the
point that while we are playing checkers, the Chinese are not
simply playing chess -- they are playing a different game
altogether: Go." -- ADMIRAL (RET.) JAMES G. STAVRIDIS, Dean of the
Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and former
Supreme Allied Commander Europe.
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