Table of Contents

Preface: Beyond the Null Hypothesis1An Ecological Scenario and the Tools of the Ecological Detective32Alternative Views of the Scientific Method and of Modeling123Probability and Probability Models: Know Your Data394Incidental Catch in Fisheries: Seabirds in the New Zealand Squid Trawl Fishery945The Confrontation: Sum of Squares1066The Evolutionary Ecology of Insect Oviposition Behavior1187The Confrontation: Likelihood and Maximum Likelihood1318Conservation Biology of Wildebeest in the Serengeti1809The Confrontation: Bayesian Goodness of Fit20310Management of Hake Fisheries in Namibia Motivation23511The Confrontation: Understanding How the Best Fit Is Found263Appendix"The Method of Multiple Working Hypotheses"281References295Index309

About the Author

Ray Hilborn is Professor in the School of Fisheries, University of Washington and the coauthor, with Carl Walters, of Quantitative Fisheries Stock Assessment. Marc Mangel is Professor of Environmental Studies and a Fellow at College Eight at the University of California, Santa Cruz, and a Visiting Professor at the University of Glasgow. He is the author of Decision and Control in Uncertain Resource Systems and coauthor, with Colin Clark, of Dynamic Modeling in Behavioral Ecology.