Foreword ix
Preface xi
Acknowledgments xv
Part I Getting Started in Technology 1
Chapter 1 Technology Basics 3
More Than Gadgets A Means 4
Technology 101 7
Starting Small: Semiconductors 7
Getting Larger: Products and Components 12
Making It All Work: Software and Services 20
Chapter 2 A Brief History of Modern Technology 25
The Snowball Event: History of Semiconductors 26
History of Computers 31
History of Communications 35
History of the Internet 37
Chapter 3 Technology Sector Drivers 43
Economic Drivers 43
Political Drivers 57
Sentiment Drivers 61
Part II Next Steps: Technology Details 67
Chapter 4 Technology Sector Breakdown 69
Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) 69
Global Technology Benchmarks 71
Technology Industry Breakdown 75
Chapter 5 Challenges in the Information Technology Sector 99
Product Maturity and Obsolescence 99
Fighting Maturity and Obsolescence 101
Extreme Fluctuations in Supply and Demand 110
Intellectual Property Threats 113
Chapter 6 A Deeper Look at Current and Emerging Technologies 117
Semiconductor Production Process 118
Emerging Manufacturing Technologies 122
Computer Technology 124
Part III Thinking Like a Portfolio Manager 131
Chapter 7 The Top-Down Method 133
Investing Is a Science 133
Einstein’s Brain and the Stock Market 134
The Top-Down Method 136
Top-Down Deconstructed 141
Managing Against a Technology Benchmark 149
Chapter 8 Security Analysis 155
Make Your Selection 156
A Five-Step Process 157
Important Questions to Ask 165
Chapter 9 Upgrading Your Portfolio—Investing Strategies 175
Strategy 1: Adding Value at the Sector Level 176
Strategy 2: Adding Value at the Industry Level 178
Strategy 3: Adding Value at the Security Level 183
Strategy 4: Adding Value in a Technology Sector Downturn 184
Strategy 5: Venture Capital 185
Good Luck! 186
Glossary 187
Notes 194
About the Authors 201
Index 202
Brendan Erne is an equity research analyst at FisherInvestments, focusing on the Global Technology sector. He is also acontributing columnist for MarketMinder.com. Erne received a BA infinance from Washington State University. Prior to joining FisherInvestments, he worked as a financial advisor for AmeripriseFinancial in Bellevue, Washington. Originally from Redmond,Washington, Erne currently resides in San Francisco. Andrew S. Teufel has been with Fisher Investments since1995, where he currently serves as a Co-President and the Directorof Research. Prior to joining Fisher Investments, he worked at BearStearns as a corporate finance analyst in its Global TechnologyGroup. Teufel also instructs at many seminars and educationalworkshops throughout the United States and United Kingdom, and haslectured at the Haas School of Business at UC Berkeley. He is alsothe Editor in Chief of MarketMinder.com. Teufel is a graduate of UCBerkeley.
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