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Fisher Investments on Technology
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Table of Contents

Foreword ix

Preface xi

Acknowledgments xv

Part I Getting Started in Technology 1

Chapter 1 Technology Basics 3

More Than Gadgets A Means 4

Technology 101 7

Starting Small: Semiconductors 7

Getting Larger: Products and Components 12

Making It All Work: Software and Services 20

Chapter 2 A Brief History of Modern Technology 25

The Snowball Event: History of Semiconductors 26

History of Computers 31

History of Communications 35

History of the Internet 37

Chapter 3 Technology Sector Drivers 43

Economic Drivers 43

Political Drivers 57

Sentiment Drivers 61

Part II Next Steps: Technology Details 67

Chapter 4 Technology Sector Breakdown 69

Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) 69

Global Technology Benchmarks 71

Technology Industry Breakdown 75

Chapter 5 Challenges in the Information Technology Sector 99

Product Maturity and Obsolescence 99

Fighting Maturity and Obsolescence 101

Extreme Fluctuations in Supply and Demand 110

Intellectual Property Threats 113

Chapter 6 A Deeper Look at Current and Emerging Technologies 117

Semiconductor Production Process 118

Emerging Manufacturing Technologies 122

Computer Technology 124

Part III Thinking Like a Portfolio Manager 131

Chapter 7 The Top-Down Method 133

Investing Is a Science 133

Einstein’s Brain and the Stock Market 134

The Top-Down Method 136

Top-Down Deconstructed 141

Managing Against a Technology Benchmark 149

Chapter 8 Security Analysis 155

Make Your Selection 156

A Five-Step Process 157

Important Questions to Ask 165

Chapter 9 Upgrading Your Portfolio—Investing Strategies 175

Strategy 1: Adding Value at the Sector Level 176

Strategy 2: Adding Value at the Industry Level 178

Strategy 3: Adding Value at the Security Level 183

Strategy 4: Adding Value in a Technology Sector Downturn 184

Strategy 5: Venture Capital 185

Good Luck! 186

Glossary 187

Notes 194

About the Authors 201

Index 202

About the Author

Brendan Erne is an equity research analyst at FisherInvestments, focusing on the Global Technology sector. He is also acontributing columnist for MarketMinder.com. Erne received a BA infinance from Washington State University. Prior to joining FisherInvestments, he worked as a financial advisor for AmeripriseFinancial in Bellevue, Washington. Originally from Redmond,Washington, Erne currently resides in San Francisco. Andrew S. Teufel has been with Fisher Investments since1995, where he currently serves as a Co-President and the Directorof Research. Prior to joining Fisher Investments, he worked at BearStearns as a corporate finance analyst in its Global TechnologyGroup. Teufel also instructs at many seminars and educationalworkshops throughout the United States and United Kingdom, and haslectured at the Haas School of Business at UC Berkeley. He is alsothe Editor in Chief of MarketMinder.com. Teufel is a graduate of UCBerkeley.

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