Table of Contents

1 Front Matter; 2 Part I: Introduction; 3 1 Analysis in the U.S.Intelligence Community: Missions, Masters, and Methods--Thomas Fingar; 4 Part II: Analytic Methods; 5 2 Operations Research and Intelligence Analysis--Edward H. Kaplan; 6 3 Applications of Game Theory in Support of Intelligence Analysis--Bruce Bueno de Mesquita; 7 4 Use of Signal Detection Theory as a Tool for Enhancing Performance and Evaluating Tradecraft in Intelligence Analysis--Gary H. McClelland; 8 5 Qualitative Analysis for the Intelligence Community--Kiron K. Skinner; 9 Part III: Analysts; 10 6 Individual Reasoning--Barbara A. Spellman; 11 7 Intuitive Theories of Behavior--Hal R. Arkes and James Kajdasz; 12 8 Group Processes in Intelligence Analysis--Reid Hastie; 13 9 Social Categorization and Intergroup Dynamics--Catherine H. Tinsley; 14 Part IV: Organizations; 15 10 Communicating About Analysis--Baruch Fischhoff; 16 11 Structuring Accountability Systems in Organizations: Key Trade-Offs and Critical Unknowns--Philip E. Tetlock and Barbara A. Mellers; 17 12 Workforce Effectiveness: Acquiring Human Resources and Developing Human Capital--Steve W. J. Kozlowski; 18 13 Implementing Change: Organizational Challenges--Amy Zegart; 19 Appendix A: Contents List for *Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences*; 20 Appendix B: Biographical Sketches of Authors and Staff