Introduction 13
CHAPTER 1 Venturing a Look into the Future
Moving from the Past into the Future via the Present
1.1 Reflections on the Future 23
1.2 Changes in Our Environment 41
1.3 Enterprise Development 45
1.4 Present and Future Challenges 50
1.5 Enterprise Intelligence Test 72
CHAPTER 2 Detection
Detecting and Recording Changes in the Enterprise Environment
2.1 A Plea for Foresight and Prior Action 81
2.2 The Enterprise Environment 82
2.3 Information as a Basis for Decision Making 86
2.4 How We Can Learn to Understand Our Environment 95
2.5 The Future of Television (I) 104
CHAPTER 3 Reflection
Sorting and Structuring Information
3.1 Changes in the Environment 115
3.2 Stability – Paradigms and Assumptions 120
3.3 Changes – Trends 122
3.4 Uncertainty 142
3.5 Contradictions 142
3.6 Indeterminate Elements – Chaos and Wildcards 143
3.7 From Hypothesis to Future Element 144
3.8 The Future of Television (II) 147
CHAPTER 4 Understanding
Anticipating the Future
4.1 Memories of the Future 155
4.2 The Possibilities and Limits of Foresight 158
4.3 Origins and Development of Foresight 162
4.4 Pictures of the Future 174
4.5 Demarcation and Focus 177
4.6 Selecting Future Elements 179
4.7 The Actual “Look” into the Future 179
4.7.1 Principles and Methods of Analyzing the Future 181
4.7.2 Methods of Analyzing the Present 194
4.7.3 Methods of Opinion Formation and Decision Making 194
4.7.4 Selection of Foresight Methods (“Looking into the Future”) 198
4.7.5 Developing Hypotheses 198
4.8 Development of Scenario Frameworks and Scenarios 200
4.9 Creating Pictures of the Future 206
4.10 Evaluation of Scenarios 208
4.11 Pictures of the Future 209
4.12 The Future of Television (III) 211
4.13 Lessons Learned 227
CHAPTER 5 Planning
Seizing Opportunities and Avoiding Hazards
5.1 Planning for the Future: An Insurance Policy 233
5.2 Strategy Review 234
5.3 Developing Strategies in Turbulent Environments 240
5.4 Enterprise Analysis 243
5.5 Strategy Synthesis 253
5.5.1 Basic Understanding of Strategy and Strategic Goals 254
5.5.2 Strategic Options and Strategic Fit 257
5.5.3 Developing Enterprise Scenarios 259
5.5.4 Developing Strategic Options 260
5.5.5 Strategic Fit 262
5.5.6 Robust Strategies 263
5.6 Strategic Decisions 265
5.7 Examining the Future in the Context of Strategy Development 266
5.8 The Future of Television (IV) 272
CHAPTER 6 Implementation
Managing Change
6.1 The Dimensions of Change 287
6.2 The Logic of Change 289
6.3 The Reality of Change in Enterprises 290
6.4 Elements of Change 294
6.4.1 The First S: Strategy 297
6.4.2 The Second S: Structures 298
6.4.3 The Third S: Systems 301
6.4.4 The Fourth S: Style 305
6.4.5 The Fifth S: Staff 307
6.4.6 The Sixth S: Skills 309
6.4.7 The Seventh S: Shared Values – Visions 310
6.4.8 F – Foresight 316
6.4.9 E – Entrepreneurship 317
6.4.10 I – Innovation Management versus Innovation 317
6.5 Orientation in the Process of Change 321
6.6 Including the Results of Analysis 325
6.7 Reflection, reflection, reflection 326
6.8 The Future of Television (V) 327
CHAPTER 7 Learning
Applications and Examples
7.1 Dealing with Uncertainty in Practice 335
7.2 The Future of Petroleum – Introduction 335
7.3 The Future of Petroleum – An Information Base 338
7.4 Compression and Operation 358
7.5 Generating Environment Scenarios 364
7.5.1 Scenario 1: “Empty” 368
7.5.2 Scenario 2: “Transition” 371
7.5.3 Scenario 3: “Fight” 374
7.5.4 Scenario 4: “Independence” 377
7.6 Generating Enterprise Scenarios 381
7.6.1 Scenario 1: Cautious Innovation 384
7.6.2 Scenario 2: No Experiments 386
7.6.3 Scenario 3: No Plan 387
7.6.4 Scenario 4: Aggressive 389
7.7 Strategic Implications 392
7.8 Example Summary 394
CHAPTER 8 Homework 397
What You Should Do
CHAPTER 9 Appendix I 403
100 Sources of Information
CHAPTER 10 Appendix II
Short Profiles of Selected Methods
10.1 Macro Environment Analysis 419
10.1.1 Environment Analysis (STEEPV) 419
10.1.2 Trend Analysis 420
10.1.3 Issue Management 421
10.2 Micro Environment Analysis 422
10.2.1 Stakeholder Analysis 422
10.2.2 Customer Profile Analysis 423
10.2.3 Industry and Market Analysis 424
10.3 Enterprise Analysis 426
10.3.1 The 7S Model .426
10.3.2 Value-chain Analysis 427
10.3.3 Benchmarking 428
10.4 Foresight 429
10.4.1 Morphological Analysis 429
10.4.2 Forecast 430
10.4.3 Weak-signal Analysis 431
10.5 Strategic Analysis 431
10.5.1 BCG Matrix 431
10.5.2 SWOT Analysis 433
10.5.3 Ansoff Matrix 434
10.6 Change Management 435
10.6.1 Eight-phase Model According to Kotter 435
10.6.2 Balanced Scorecard 436
References 437
Index 450
ULF PILLKAHN
is Strategy Consultant at Siemens AG in Munich. He is proprietor of
a number of patents and inventions. For a few years now he is
successfully dealing with innovation management, especially with I
and C technologies, strategy development and futurology.
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